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Say Chinese house price falls to already was become greatly finality, want to do clear He Wei to drop greatly above all. China is very big, the State Council is in early decided big city is 79 1999, accelerate as what city of so old China changes a course, bead trigonometry city group, long triangle city group, city of annulus Bohai Sea group like a rising wind and scudding clouds, should be early broke through this data. Current and character, of city of Chinese a gleam of all valence is in 13000 the left and right sides, second line city (the specific city except such as Hangzhou) all valence reachs 7000 yuan in 5000 yuan, 3 lines city all valence is in 2200 control to 3000 yuan. Accordingly, the fall of price of Chinese town house is particularly big, what also can see Chinese city changes development from here is lopsided, resource is excessive center to city of a gleam of, and ignored numerous 3 boundaries city and a few burgeoning counties. all price level, drop one year 15% it is namely drop greatly, the partial section that is in congenial exceeding Shenzhen and Guangzhou Beijing Shanghai, drop one year go 30% to 50% it is namely drop greatly.
So, why to tell Chinese house price to drop to already was become greatly finality? It is Wen Ge's speech above all. My understanding is, did not come 5 years, chinese government throws cheap of hundreds 100 million build every year to rent a house, the scale that and cheap hires room and economy applicable room occupies development gross area will be achieved 70% , satisfied rigid requirement not only,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych] ,, also stablize action to arriving since house price. Actually, here 70% it is a government to the people make up a missed lesson, scale is not tall however low, should accomplish originally 90% , the likelihood considers area between lopsided and had approved the residence that go out to use the land too much, the element such as the effect that adds local government finance to go up just is surely of 70% . Have 70% only namely, also enough helps bottom room price.
Next,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych] ,, on the low side of Chinese townsman income, when Chinese economy high speed grows, the total income of townsman still fell in GDP 12% , this is why a when the people did not enjoy economy to flourish main reason. With respect to city of a gleam of character, what the mainstream buys room group to come 45 years old for 25 years old is white-collar, their average income Shanghai is highest, have 5328 yuan only, relative to 13000 yuan house price, want 20 years not to eat not to drink ability to buy the house of a 90 square metre, such tall house price can be maintained how to long be a problem really. Shanghai even is such, shenzhen Beijing Guangzhou with respect to prep let alone. The house price blame that this kind of element will decide city of a gleam of falls cannot.
The 3rd, financial industry of China produced high vigilance to estate. The macroscopical adjusting control of administration is correct on direction and method, add 9 times continuously cease and nod the attune on bank reserve interest rate high to the history, and still have go up the space of tone, this means Central Bank force to push position of determination of building city foamy and agreeable of blow building city. From macroscopical level analysis, the RMB strikes back to the defend oneself of the dollar battle already start shooting, who will win returns unknown, but, american people does not think economy is immersed in depression,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych] ,, chinese people is unwilling also be plundered at fortune, the exchange rate that did not come 5 years has to ankylose condition, plus Chinese government together outside be restricted, make, maintaining level of existing exchange rate can anticipate. In home, with the growth that increases the method of breath to restrain CPI, dissolve inflation effectively, also became the consensus that agrees up and down. Constrictive money is estate business is mixed numerous fry the home to must be faced. The congenial market of building city once be defeated, house price avalanche also was become inevitable.
The 4th,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych] ,, let us read Wen Ge's speech first: China is annual new student population should exceed 10 million, enter a city every year to need those who solve housing to go into town by the country personnel is achieved 18 million, still farmer of 21 million flow is versed in, also need living requirement. Do not talk to increase population newly every year first, those who need housing is 39 million person, by two people one calculates, it is 20 million are less than. Still have graduate of 4.13 million old technical secondary school, even if add 2 million newly every year. Two addition in all 22 million, calculate by 90 square metre, in all 19. 800 million square metre, and in last few years only 4 cities add Shenzhen of Beijing Shanghai Guangzhou newly every year the area amounts to 85 million square metre, still have additionally about a hundred countrywide city? Develop a face to accumulate not less than 2 billion square metre. If say rigid demand, present development capacity already was passed big, see Shenzhen again so much a person of extraordinary powers curtilage area, bright light rate of Lian Sicheng does not arrive in the evening, not fathomless fry an one person to have 30, 50, 100 even 1000 flatlet are how to return a responsibility. Want house price to drop only, these houses must be spat completely come, the situation of supply exceeds demand can be formed very quickly. Be in Shenzhen, one of supply exceeds demand shows a sign is,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych] ,, source of room of skill of stock keep long in stock exceeds 50000, and had exceeded 40000 now, fast the acme that achieves the history.
Above of make a comprehensive view 4 respects, chinese house price falls to already was become greatly finality, it is city of a gleam of not just, also include 23 lines city. see more Information：

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